In This Issue:

WEATHER 101:
• Next Week’s Forecast? Can I Tell You Next Week
  
  
WEATHER STATIONS IN ACTION:
• Observing the Observatory
• Vantage Pro Helps Keep Trains on Tracks
  
  
TECH TIPS:
• Oh No! My Console Isn’t Speaking to WeatherLink!
  
  
MAILBAG:
• Weather Wizard Reports Lightning Strike
• My Yahoo! and WeatherLink
• WeatherLink and Mini-ITX PC
• Australian School Participates in GLOBE Program
  
  
YOU'RE BRILLIANT!
• Answers to Quiz Questions
  
  
WHO YOU GONNA CALL?
• Davis!

WEATHER 101:

Next Week’s Forecast? Can I Tell You Next Week?

We, along with the Mayor of Moscow, have grown tired of inaccurate weather forecasts. How hard can it be to predict the weather? We can do it ourselves, with excellent accuracy. In fact, right now we’ll predict tomorrow’s precipitation for your town, wherever you live: no rain. We guarantee our accuracy will be better than 50%! (Because, worldwide, there are lots more fair days than rainy days!) Short term forecasts are really a snap: we predict that the weather in the next hour will be pretty much the same as it is now. (Because weather tends to follow trends!) You want long term? How about this: on July 4, 2018, we predict it will sunny with no rain in Los Angeles. (Because climate predicts weather!) Are you impressed yet?

So why do meteorologists like poor old Alexei Lyakhov, the head of the Moscow Weather Bureau, keep messing up their predictions to the point that Moscow’s cranky mayor, Yuri Lushkov, recently announced that no more funding would be given to the Bureau until it signed an agreement allowing the city to impose fines for incorrect forecasts? (More details are in a story by Oksana Yablokova on Rantburg 1.)

Alexei, despite our proven, amazing ability to forecast the weather, we’re on your side. We know that running a city the size of Moscow is a piece of cake compared to forecasting the weather. In the first place, who defines what is or is not “accurate?” When the Moscow Bureau predicted -5ºC, and the temperature plunged to -14ºC, they had to admit that forecast was not accurate. But, according to Lyakhov, 94% of the Bureau’s forecasts are accurate. That sounds pretty darned accurate to us. If we predict a 30% chance of rain, and you get wet, were we 30% accurate?

100% accuracy in weather forecasting, by any definition, is impossible. But it’s not for lack of effort. Since the beginning of mankind, we’ve been trying to make some sense of the weather and to come up with a way to know what will happen, weather-wise, before it does. Back a couple of thousand years, a brilliant student of Aristotle, Theophrastus, wrote the Book of Signs. In it, he explained how to look at clouds, rings around the moon, and biting flies to predict the weather. That book stood as about the best we could do for most of those two thousand years! Only recently have weather guys have found better ways to predict the weather.

Theophrastus was absolutely right about one thing: weather forecasting is based on good old observation and collection of data. Years ago, meteorologists observed the weather around them and kept the data for comparison from one year to the next. They watched “signs” of their own and recognized patterns. They used their skill to integrate what they could measure with what they knew from past experience. Often the results were good, but tell that to the farmer whose crop fails because no one saw the oncoming drought/flood/ hail/blizzard/hurricane.

With the development of land and ship-based weather stations, visible and infrared satellite images, aircraft, radiosondes, soundings (vertical profiles of temperature, wind, etc.), and Doppler radar, observation of weather data has become more comprehensive. New supercomputers take all those bits of data, and using mathematical atmospheric models, mull them into prognostic charts or progs which give a guide to forecasting the weather today up to four days in the future. The skill of meteorologists comes from the interpretation of such high tech guides as progs, taking into consideration local geography, and using their own experience with a good bit of interpretation.

Even with modern technology, it’s still not easy. Forecast accuracy goes the further out the prediction is--anything beyond seven days, and accuracy drops precipitously. Smaller, more volatile, weather systems such as tornadoes are also difficult to predict. Computers simplify some of the analysis, but they have inherent problems. The atmospheric models used to create a prog are never exactly right for any given area. The models must make assumptions about the atmosphere that may or may not be true. This can be mediated somewhat by using more than one model, but sometimes two models may give conflicting progs. What’s a meteorologist to do?

Today’s meteorologists have learned, the hard way, that no matter how much data they have, the weather still has a mind of its own. They’ve watched very large systems like hurricanes barreling down a predictable course, only to turn, or die out, when no one expected it. They’ve predicted huge storms, because every prog they looked at indicated one coming, and then had to watch a light shower come and go.

According to an excellent article by science writer, Keay Davidson in the San Francisco Chronicle, “the ultimate barrier to perfect forecasting is chaos theory.” Chaos theory describes our inability to know every variable (and they are infinite) of the atmosphere, and the fact that those little gaps in knowledge escalate into big differences in weather outcome.

Chaos theory will keep even the best of weather forecasting limited. According to Dr. Daniel S. Wilks of Cornell University, the “theoretical limit on daily (and weekly) prediction is about two weeks. Weather forecasts for individual days and weeks beyond this limit cannot be skillful except through luck.”

So, to all the meteorologists in Moscow—and everywhere else—good luck!

Weather Check Quiz Question 1: (This question is from Meteorology Today, by C. Donald Ahrens.) If the weatherman on your local television news predicts “a 60% chance of rain,” does that mean:
A. It will rain on 60% of the forecast area;
B. There is a 60% chance that it will rain throughout the forecast area;
C. Neither A nor B.

WEATHER STATIONS IN ACTION:

Observing the Observatory

A cute little playhouse for a weather-conscious child? A storage shed for garden tools? Goat barn? None of the above...

...it's a very cool backyard observatory!

Star gazers, here are a couple of photos to make you very jealous. They are of Joel Fetter’s Vantage Pro, which is mounted on his backyard observatory. As you can see, the observatory’s roof slides down when he wants to access his telescope. He takes some great photos from his unique backyard – no, not of things like the kids playing tag, but things like the Orion nebula and the Pleiades star cluster. Nice, we say.

(Want to build one of your own? First, get your Vantage Pro2. Next step would be to check out Zena Mobile Welding’s site for some building ideas.)

Weather Check Quiz Question 2: Why do stars appear to twinkle when we look at them?

Vantage Pro Helps Keep Trains on Tracks

Could this be the world’s shortest railroad?

Jim Bertrand and his Vantage Pro were featured in the January issue of Canadian Geographic. His Vantage Pro lives in his front yard, right next to his two-meter long railway track. Jim, a civil engineering student at the University of Calgary, is researching the relationship between heated tracks and train derailments. He is analyzing where the heat comes from (rails can become significantly hotter than ambient air--you can check out the difference on his weather page and how the impact of wind and cloud cover affects this heating. His weather station collects weather data as well as temperature data from probes drilled into the rails. He hopes the results will mean improved railway safety.

TECH TIPS:

Oh No! My Console Isn’t Speaking to WeatherLink!

Here’s a nightmare scenario for any true weather nut. You awaken in the middle of the night to a big thunder storm raging outside. Of course, your Vantage Pro2 console is right next to your bed, and it’s showing inches upon inches of wet stuff. You, being a weather nut, are delighted. You watch that console like a hawk, waiting for the moment you see that record-breaking data light up.

“Ha, ha,” you laugh, thinking of the fun you’ll have when you share THIS with your weather buddies. The next day, a clear dawn finds you already at the computer, opening WeatherLink to begin the gloating process. But wait! What’s this? It can’t be!

“There’s nothing here!” you scream. “No data! No proof of those inches! Aiieeeeee!” What happened? According to our tech support team, your data logger was probably not installed correctly. But how do you know that your data logger is plugged in properly before it’s too late? This one is easy. Just follow the steps below to make sure there’s good communication between WeatherLink PC software and your Vantage Pro or Vantage Pro2 console.

Before you physically check anything, put your console into Setup Mode by pressing and holding DONE and then pressing the “down” arrow (-). Entering the Setup Mode ensures that your station is not writing any data and saves the current daily totals, highs, and lows to memory. Your console screen will go blank and the words "Receiving From . . ." will appear across the bottom of the screen. Now press the BAR button. If the words "Serial Baud Rate 19200” appear the bottom of your console, then you know that your data logger is installed properly and is working with your console. Press and hold the DONE button for a few seconds; the screen will return to the Current Weather Mode.

However, if after pressing BAR, the screen goes to the rain season screen (the words "Rain Season Begins…” appear across the bottom of your console) then you know the data logger is likely not installed properly.

To reinstall your data logger, first remove the batteries from the console and disconnect it from the AC power adapter. Never install or remove your data logger while the console is powered, as you could damage your data logger! Be prepared to walk through your setup procedure as described in your console manual after cycling the power. (It’s a good idea to write down your settings – like latitude, longitude and elevation – so you won’t have to find them again later.)

Next remove your data logger by either pulling on the metal handle, if yours has one, or pulling on the solid plastic block at the top of the data logger where the sticker says "Grab Here." Once it is out, line up the long rectangular block of holes with the two rows of pins labeled "EXPANSION" on your console. Gently but firmly press the data logger into place until it is secured in the expansion port.

Once the data logger is back in, go ahead and put the batteries back into your console and/or reconnect it to AC power. The console should beep several times and a thank you message should roll across the bottom of your console screen. Next it will go into Setup Mode. You may need to re-enter your setup preferences, so go ahead and do that now.

Check again to make sure the data logger is now installed correctly (by pressing BAR). If not, please call Davis' Technical Support at (510) 732-7814 between 7:00 a.m. and 5:30 p.m. Pacific Standard Time.

Weather Check Quiz Question 3: What if that big storm knocks out the power and it gets very, very cold in your bedroom? How cold would it have to get before your console is just too chilly to work?A. Below 41ºF (5ºC)
B. Below 28ºF (-2ºC)
C. Below 14ºF (-10ºC)
D. Below -10ºF (-23ºC)

MAILBAG:

Did some evil-doer break into John and Tabitha Zyla’s home and destroy their innocent Weather Wizard console? “Forensic Meteorology” solves the mystery!

Marty Brumback, of White Plains, MD, wrote this story for us about an unnerving experience his friends John and Tabitha Zyla had.

“ ‘Honey, please check the Weather Wizard ’ This was the simple request made by John Zyla during a telephone call home to his wife, Tabitha. John wanted to see what the daily observations were for his Maryland weather station while he was on business travel. Tabitha looked on the fireplace mantel where the Weather Wizard display had sat for the last nine years but found it missing. Confused, she looked around and found the display in many pieces on the floor six feet away.

“Vandalism? Nope. Seems that Mother Nature had paid an unexpected visit to the Zyla residence while no one was at home. A little ‘forensic meteorology’ revealed that during the evening before, a thunderstorm had dropped over 4” of rain and delivered at least one lightning bolt to his station. John found the electrical outlet cover nearest the Davis display blown in two and the VCR ruined. John believes that the lightning then traveled out to the Davis rain collector. Although it showed no visible outside damage, the magnet in the collector was demagnetized.

“On the downside, John ended up replacing the console – obviously – as well as the junction box, rain collector, cables, and anemometer. On the upside, John discovered that in addition to temperature, precipitation, wind speed and direction, the Weather Wizard also measures the intensity of lightning…in a manner of speaking."

Poor Zylas! Next time maybe a wireless system is in order – they are much less susceptible to lightning strikes because if the ISS is hit, the current will not travel through the cables to the console.

RIP, brave little Wizard!

Weather Check Quiz Question 4: Meteorites and lightning are the two natural sources of what normally man-made substance? (Hint: Want to come up and see our fulgurite collection?)

My Yahoo! and WeatherLink

Scott Book, of Falcon, CO, has a fun website that is loaded with examples of his hobby: lightning photography. Scott’s reaching out to other “technically-oriented weather geeks out there” to share this fun tidbit.

“If they have a MyYahoo! webpage and the WeatherLink software,” says Scott, they can display their weather station data on their front page. You can find instructions here.”

WeatherLink and Mini-ITX PC

Richard Davies, of TailormadePC in the UK, has an interesting way to run WeatherLink without a big old desktop PC.

He wrote, “Do you want to run Davis WeatherLink but do not want to run a reasonably expensive and power-hungry, noisy desktop PC 24/7? Rather than opting to using an ATX desktop PC it could be worth considering using a Mini-ITX PC. Mini-ITX PCs are smaller than the smallest SFF (Small Form Factor) PC and not only consume less power than their desktop counterparts but also run practically silently with both fan cooled and fanless mainboards available. VIApsd Mini-ITX Mainboards measure only 170mm x 170mm (about 7” x 7”) and are all compatible with the Windows operating system and therefore Davis WeatherLink! Click here for further details.”

Australian School Participates in GLOBE Program

Science teacher Roland Gesthuizen wrote to exclaim over his school’s participation in the GLOBE program with their Davis weather station. Westall Secondary College in Clayton, South Victoria, Australia has posted over 2,897 units of weather data to their website since Gesthuizen started the project began in 1999.

“We have become part of a virtual community and international scientists with over 12,000 international GLOBE schools that can access and analyze our contributions,” he wrote. “eLearning is no longer a dream. Having a class with technology tools like computers and the Internet, is a fantastic way to teach and learn. Here is a classroom without walls, with friends and horizons that extend across the world.”

In Australia, the GLOBE project is sponsored by CSIRO Education.

YOU'RE BRILLIANT!:

Question 1: C. Neither. It means “that there is a 60% chance that any random place in the forecast area, such as your home, will receive measurable rainfall.”

Question 2: Shifting currents of air and dust in our atmosphere refracts the light from the stars. This causes the light path to either reach or miss our eyes, and it looks like a twinkle. The extreme distance the light must travel makes stars appear to be just little points of light, unlike the non-twinkling moon, sun, and planets.

Question 3: The console will keep recording and storing data until the temp drops below 14ºF, however when the temperature goes below 32ºF, the LCD will stop functioning and you won’t be able to read the console. If it gets that cold in your bedroom, perhaps you ought to consider central heat for your igloo.

Question 4: Glass! When lightning strikes sandy soil (and even sometimes, rock) the extreme heat (which can be several times hotter than the surface of the sun) vaporizes the moisture in the sand and melts the silica around it into a tube of grayish white glass. The resulting root-like fulgurites can be up to a meter long, but are very fragile, and make a nice chiming sound when gently tapped. You can buy one at Science Mall or learn everything you want to know about them from Vladimir A. Rakov, of the University of Florida, Gainesville.

WHO YOU GONNA CALL?

We think you should know, though, that if you're interested in the fastest possible reply, news@davisnet.com may not be the best place to send your message. Questions about how things work should be addressed to tech support directly at support@davisnet.com. For general information about the products, such as how much cable comes with a station contact sales@davisnet.com. To request a catalog, you’ll find links for catalog requests on our web site at http://www.davisnet.com/contact/catalog.asp

Please continue to send your comments, weather URL's, and story suggestions to news@davisnet.com. We look forward to getting your comments and any responses you have to the E-News. Member participation is what keeps the E-News alive and kicking.

Well, that’s it for this edition. You’ll be hearing from us again next month!


Vantage Pro2, Vantage Pro2 Plus, Vantage Pro, Vantage Pro Plus, Weather Monitor, Weather Wizard, WeatherLink, Weather Envoy, and Perception are trademarks of Davis Instruments Corp.